Data published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicate a moderation of global food inflation, though without a return to a fully stable level. The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) reached 125.3 points in February 2026, marking a monthly increase of 0.9%, but remaining slightly below the previous year’s level and approximately 22% below the 2022 peak. This evolution confirms a phase of relative stabilization in agri-food markets.

However, the structure of the index reveals significant differences across categories. Recent increases have been driven by cereals, meat, and vegetable oils. Cereal prices have been influenced by climate risks and logistical tensions in the Black Sea region, while vegetable oils have recorded one of the fastest increases, supported by global demand and their use in biofuels. In the meat segment, strong external demand, particularly from Asia and the United States, continues to exert upward pressure on prices.

In contrast, dairy products and sugar are on a downward trend, due to a more robust supply and adjustments in demand. This dynamic creates a fragmented market, where production costs vary significantly across segments of the food industry.

Global fundamentals remain solid. FAO estimates cereal production at over 3 billion tonnes, reducing the risk of major supply imbalances. However, volatility persists, driven by external factors such as climate conditions, energy costs, and the geopolitical environment.

For the food industry, 2026 presents a mixed landscape: aggregate stability, but targeted pressures on certain raw materials. Adapting sourcing strategies and managing costs become essential in a market that remains sensitive to external shocks.

(Photo: Freepik)